Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Flavio Dollani

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andreas Phylactou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Isidoros Popovits (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nikolaos Gkilis (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kostas Tsolakidis (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Aris Vasileiadis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.16
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.47
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Antonis Autzalanidis

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nikos Evgenidis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kostas Tsolakidis (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christos Giannelos (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Mitsikoudis (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Stella Skepetari (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.29
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Christos Kontzoglou

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Μαριος Γιουβανούδης (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs panagiotis ntemiris (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Beddy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.