Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Greece
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
28th • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.1
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs GRIGORIOS KOUVOUSIS (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 79:21
Round 2: Loss vs Nick Mamonas (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kanaris Bounas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Antonis Autzalanidis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52
Round 8: Loss vs Takis Pavlou (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Alkis Sejati (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 80% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 70% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.