Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-1-0
62%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.9
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hakim Green (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Peng Joon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
Round 3: Win vs Jian Wei Tee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Quah Hee Aun (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Kar Hoe See (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Kok Bin Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Rocky, Weng Khuan Lim (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Wei Jian Gan (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Johannas Mohd Yusof (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kai Young Tan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Juan Kin Lim (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Tan (Nickay) (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
75:25
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Louis Mook (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Josiah Cheah (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
30th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.1
Surp
2.6
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Juan Kin Lim (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Zheng Wei Tham (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ivan Dinnesh (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs E Wei Lim (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Tan Eugene (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Areena Jasmine Yazid (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
34th • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.4
Surp
3.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Tan (Nickay) (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs (IG) Davin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tan Eugene (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Gideon Yee (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 70:30
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Zheng Wei Tham (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Yuen Peir Teo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-1
60%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Adrian Dewind (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Shazrul Izwan (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Peng Joon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jamal Armand (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Lih Song Tan (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yi Jun Loh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs E Wei Lim (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
Round 3: Loss vs Kok Bin Ng (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs (William) Wai Leem Au Yong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Xi Shern Tan (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Vinces Lim (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 83:17
Round 2: Win vs Haziq Ghazale (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Yong (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Round 7: Loss vs Daryl Sham (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Round 8: Loss vs Samuel Wong (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R8 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
100%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Ng cheng yang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Johannas Mohd Yusof (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48
Round 3: Loss vs Abdul Naeem Green (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Liang Choong Poh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Areena Jasmine Yazid (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jamal Armand (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Loss vs Hakim Green (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Moses Jason (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lexiss Pong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Zer Shiuan Peng (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
Round 2: Loss vs Kenn Lau (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daryl Sham (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.