4th Jan Mox Saga Battle Hardened Hong Kong 2025 - Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry (CC)

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Raphael Warren

32nd • 2-4-1

86%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcus Shum (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Man Kit (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roscar Tang (Unknown)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Anthony Liu (Unknown)

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ashley Chiu (Unknown)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kelvin Ng (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Sunny Yu

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tsz Long Mok (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henry Lau (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs ricky leung (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jammy Cheng

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Lo (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs To Cheng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 78:22

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Edwin Poon (Unknown)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yuhung Kao (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.18
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

York kwok

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nova Chan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs PH Chung (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rocky Cheung (Unknown)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lok Chan (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

BILLY CHAN

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs FUNG CC (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lee Ka Yu (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tsz Long Mok

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sunny Yu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kelvin Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chun sir (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Larry Tam

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs ka chun chan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 38:62

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.