4th Jan Mox Saga Battle Hardened Hong Kong 2025 - Nuu, Alluring Desire (CC)

Nuu, Alluring Desire

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Shing Tsang

3rd • 8-1-0

100%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tsz Lung Wu (Unknown)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs ka chun chan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 69:31

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bun Ar (Unknown)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kelvin Law ()

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Carlo Ople (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Alex Lo (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.40
R5	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.80
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.92
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rocko Yan

20th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 49:51

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lok Chan (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Unknown)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wilson Cheung (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tsz Lung Wu (Unknown)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs See Atlantis (Unknown)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Man Ho Tang ()

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Terry Yuen

26th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bun Ar (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Man Ho Tang ()

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Woody Cheung (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcus Shum (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 77:23

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Unknown)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mountain Wong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jeroen Van den berg (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC		50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.17
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.22
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Man Kit

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Ng (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Raphael Warren (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Li (Unknown)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Unknown)

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jackie wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.51
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.32
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Jack Tang

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs YAT TUNG (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.