Jarl Vetreiði at 4th Jan Mox Saga Battle Hardened Hong Kong

Jarl Vetreiði

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Wilson Cheung

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Rocky Cheung (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Ng (Unknown)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cheuk Lun Tsang (Unknown)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Chan Lion

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Law Wen (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kelvin Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Keung Li

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Ka Yu (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.