4th Jan Mox Saga Battle Hardened Hong Kong 2025 - Zen, Tamer of Purpose (CC)

Zen, Tamer of Purpose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

ka chun chan

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Larry Tam (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bun Ar (Unknown)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pang Chan (Unknown)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.12
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nova Chan

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs York kwok (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 62:38

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Elvis Ho (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

PH Chung

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cold Cold Lee (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs York kwok (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mountain Wong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.47
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.