Aurora, Shooting Star
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-1-0
100%
Meta
+3.8
Perf
4.8
Surp
4.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs BILLY CHAN (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alex Lo (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ashley Chiu (Unknown)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lk Sing (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Alex Lo (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (10/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
3rd • 7-2-0
100%
Meta
+2.4
Perf
4.4
Surp
3.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs AZCEX DECADE (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Edwin Poon (Unknown)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Teddy Tai (Unknown)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Carlo Ople (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Man Ho Tang ()
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (9/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R8 | 50% | Win | |
| R9 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
5th • 5-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rocko Yan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sunny Yu (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joel Guzman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Edwin Poon (Unknown)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lk Sing (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
10th • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Kelvin Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Yau (Unknown)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Pang Chan (Unknown)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Colin Li (Unknown)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joel Guzman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
13th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yuhung Kao (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nova Chan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mountain Wong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Pang Chan (Unknown)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Man Ho Tang ()
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Cold Cold Lee (Unknown)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | 50% | Loss | |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
15th • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Wan Tenjin (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kaiser Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs ricky leung (Unknown)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Evanking Chiu (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Eugene C (Unknown)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs See Atlantis (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lk Sing (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Moster Rex (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs David Yau (Unknown)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (5/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.8
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rudy Ar (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jackie wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kelvin Law ()
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Unknown)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R3 | 50% | Loss | |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Chun sir (Unknown)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hongkai Guo (Unknown)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kaiser Wong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Philip Wong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jackie wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs leung hon chung (Unknown)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Unknown)
Round 4: Loss vs Kelvin Wong (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.