4th Jan Mox Saga Battle Hardened Hong Kong 2025 - Viserai, Rune Blood (CC)

Viserai, Rune Blood

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yuhung Kao

14th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kyrios Mak (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elvis Ho (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs AZCEX DECADE (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jammy Cheng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wong Hennessy (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jeroen Van den berg (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mountain Wong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.50
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.37

Joel Guzman

17th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs YAT TUNG (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason Lo (Unknown)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Chan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cold Cold Lee (Unknown)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Teddy Tai (Unknown)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.50
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Evanking Chiu

18th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacinda Lee (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 59:41

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Chun sir (Unknown)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Allen Lau (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Raphael Warren (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lk Sing (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lee Ka Yu (Unknown)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacky Ho (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Philip Wong

29th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Man Ho Tang ()

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wayne Tsui (Unknown)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jackie wong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Moster Rex (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Teddy Tai (Unknown)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marcus Shum (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jaime Leon Warren (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.67
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Chi Hoi Tsoi

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Law Wen (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cold Cold Lee (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.