Dorinthea Ironsong at 4th Jan Mox Saga Battle Hardened Hong

Dorinthea Ironsong

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Roderick So

5th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Liu (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jaime Leon Warren (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shing Tsang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs ka chun chan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 42:58

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eugene C (Unknown)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alex Lo (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.78
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Jacinda Lee

35th • 1-5-1

86%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evanking Chiu (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Henry Lau (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs To Cheng (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Larry Rockman (Unknown)

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Edwin Poon (Unknown)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony Liu (Unknown)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mok Marcus

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chong Chi fu (Unknown)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs C WK (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Roderick So (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tsz Lung Wu (Unknown)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Lo (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Man Kit (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.36

To Cheng

dropped • 2-2-1

80%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Larry Rockman (Unknown)

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jammy Cheng (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacinda Lee (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wan Tenjin (Unknown)

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mountain Wong (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.