Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at 4th Jan Mox Saga Battle Hardened Hong Kong 2025
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
28th • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.9
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Raphael Warren (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Zane Wong (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Man Ho Tang ()
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Terry Yuen (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 23:77
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Larry Rockman (Unknown)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Philip Wong (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs See Atlantis (Unknown)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R3 | 50% | Loss | |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.