National Championship 2026 - Ireland - Cindra, Dracai of Retribution (CC)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Ward

2nd • 5-4-0

44%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jamie McCabe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Connor McLaughlin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Blake Jensen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Carl Boyle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tony Gleeson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dylan Thompson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.33
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.67
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.33
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.70
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Adam West

5th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peter Smyth (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alan Lynch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Robert Jordan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ian Holland (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.40
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.81
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.29
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Ian Holland

9th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Blake Jensen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Walsh (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jelo Salomon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Adam West (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.23
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.29
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.