National Championship 2026 - Ireland - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Carl Boyle

3rd • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs seoirse byrne (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 77:23

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Moore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Porter (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robert Jordan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tony Gleeson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.05
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.33
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.91
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.52
R11	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Jonathan McDowell

11th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Blake Jensen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dennis Chambers (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charlotte Little (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Walsh (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs seoirse byrne (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 77:23

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Alan Lynch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R8	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.50
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Paul Conaty

22nd • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Walsh (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tony Gleeson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Chambers (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Moore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jaye philpott (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

85:15

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Sheelan (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.39

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.