National Championship 2026 - Ireland - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Moore

dropped • 2-1-1

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jack Canty (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carl Boyle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Dimitri Dimov (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Conaty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Draw	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.36

Charlotte Little

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robert Jordan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan McDowell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kieran Waters (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.06

Jelo Salomon

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dimitri Dimov (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sean Murray (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tadhg Conaty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Holland (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.66
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.