Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2026

Puffin, Hightail

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ryan Porter

1st • 8-1-0

33%

Meta

+3.6

Perf

4.5

Surp

6.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jaye philpott (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Connor McGrath (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carl Boyle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Ward (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ian Holland (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mark Dee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alan Lynch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Carl Boyle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lucas Ward (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

6.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.08
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.38
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.53
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.06
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.75
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.39
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.59

Blake Jensen

20th • 1-5-0

17%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan McDowell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ian Holland (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tony Gleeson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eugenio Assenzi (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Connor McLaughlin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Justin Walsh

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul Conaty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Smyth (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Holland (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan McDowell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Alan Lynch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.72
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Peter Smyth

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dennis Chambers (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Walsh (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam West (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stephen McKeever (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.71

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.