National Championship 2026 - Ireland - Kassai of the Golden Sand (CC)

Kassai of the Golden Sand

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Connor McGrath

10th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tony Gleeson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Canty (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jamie McCabe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.86
R8	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.03
R9	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Connor McLaughlin

19th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

95:5

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Sheelan (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 94:6

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dimitri Dimov (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Blake Jensen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.04
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.79

Stephen McKeever

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Curran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

95:5

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Sheelan (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 94:6

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Russell (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Smyth (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.04
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.