FaB-Results
Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alan Lynch
5th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
4.1
Diff
Zyggy Starlight
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Boguslaw Walczak (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 54:46
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mark Dee (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robert Jordan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Adam West (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
Puffin, Hightail
!
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Justin Walsh (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jonathan McDowell (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59
Puffin, Hightail
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62
Mark Dee
12th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
Katsu, the Wanderer
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tadhg Conaty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 68:32
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alan Lynch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tony Gleeson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Aurora, Legacy of Tempest
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dennis Chambers (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 45:55
Katsu, the Wanderer
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Christopher Curran (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 68:32
Puffin, Hightail
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.