Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at National Championship 2026

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rafael Alva Shady

16th • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Handy Wijaya (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael STEPHANUS (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anditya Tornando (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alfahsya Sean Daffa (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Evandra Tamzil (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Zul Kifli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R4	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.73
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.98
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.78

Muhamad Agus Suriyanto

9th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Charles Widjaja (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dave Poetera (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arif Ardiningrum (Dash I/O) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wisnu Arbani Mochdie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Handy Wijaya (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Abdurrahman Putra (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.59
R9	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Charles Widjaja

dropped • 1-2-1

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Muhamad Agus Suriyanto (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Julio Anthony (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Sugianto (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 16:84

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Agis (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Draw	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	15%	Loss	✗	0.16	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Willy Willy

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Julio Anthony (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Derry Lijuwardi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Michael STEPHANUS (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Stevano Raphael (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Wisnu Arbani Mochdie

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs agung wijayanto (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andreas Tihor (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Georgius Andrian (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Muhamad Agus Suriyanto (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.68
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.