National Championship 2026 - Indonesia - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brandon Sugianto

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andreas Andreas (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Adi Guna Sodikin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Charles Widjaja (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matteo Layl Madian (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Kenneth Nathan Wijaya

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Samyudia (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Handy Wijaya (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andreas Tihor (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Julio Anthony (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Tuningsih Haryati

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justian Frederick (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fenri Mintardja (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zul Kifli (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isuardi Therianto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.08
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.