National Championship 2026 - Indonesia - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Melvin Tan

1st • 9-0-0

44%

Meta

+4.5

Perf

4.5

Surp

7.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Abdurrahman Putra (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christian Andersen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matteo Layl Madian (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ricky Lianto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Julianto (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Putu Swantara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Putu Swantara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs martinus indra (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ricky Lianto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.13
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.12
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.36
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.50
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.25
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.84
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.93
R11	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.39
R12	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.50

Andreas Tihor

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adi Guna Sodikin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Wisnu Arbani Mochdie (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kenneth Nathan Wijaya (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Putu Swantara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dyatmika Paramaanindya (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.36
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Stevano Raphael

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ricky Lianto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juwonardo Budijanto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Poetera (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Willy Willy (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.