Calling: Shanghai 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrea Mengucci

28th • 8-4-0

42%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

6.0

Surp

4.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Zihao Zhang (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs ziye zhang (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Xingyu ZHOU (Florian) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tianyu Li (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Sihong Chen (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Jimmy Nguyen (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Qiu Wenyang (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Loss vs Thomas Bailey Galbraith (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Teck Yeow Wong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R3	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.11
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.83
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R9	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R10	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.13
R11	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.33

Fabian Rex

34th • 8-4-0

42%

Meta

+2.3

Perf

5.8

Surp

4.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Some Body (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Steven Young (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kieran Carnegie (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Li GongXu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hao Miao (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Collett (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs yaqiong Ju (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Martin Holík (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Thanthawat "Vespa" Chujitngamsuwong (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Qiu Wenyang (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R11 SAGE

Round 11: Win vs 郭傲 (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

80:20

R12 SAGE

Round 12: Win vs Elaine Cao (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.71
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R11	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.31
R12	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.29

Chris Chee Shi Feng

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs XIAO LUO (Florian) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Li GongXu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Keegan Walls (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kin Bong Ernie Wong (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs chen han (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Judge John (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Florian) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.02
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.43

Samual Nightingale

dropped • 4-3-0

14%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.1

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mingyu Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Joniel Ibasco (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs jiayang you (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs 沈海江 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Moran Zhuang (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.95
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.43

Hongda Li

dropped • 3-3-1

29%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs yaqiong Ju (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs li shuo (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs jincheng zhang (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs YuChen Liu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tom Hartley (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 嘉诚徐 (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Draw vs Chun Kin Tse (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.76
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R6	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Draw	✓	0.53	-

Wen Jun Zheng

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs huang weiyi (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Xiangjun Dai (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs yaqiong Ju (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs shaopeng pu (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Bangliang Liu (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Zhengjia Liu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.02
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Daniel Collett

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Wentao Huang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tom Hartley (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs James Tung (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Cu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Oh Oh (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.71
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

shao qi Chen

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Gu (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs U norphy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Yingming Zhao (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs HAN Xintong (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Connor Leverton (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Weiqi Zhou (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.71
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.13
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Fish Do

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Liu (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Zhipeng Sun (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zihan Xu (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs TZU HENG LIN (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs YIKAI WANG (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Chun Kin Tse (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.24
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.63
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Tang Li

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Haotian Dong (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nova Chan (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 宇田龚 (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Wei-Te Fang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs 可暄赵 (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.30
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

huang weiyi

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Wen Jun Zheng (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Andy Liang (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs shaopeng pu (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Colin Li (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.71
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

渣斯基

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Zehao Li (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Avinash Vellavan (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Zehao Li

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rocko Yan (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 渣斯基 (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Zhi Qiao (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

喆李

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Gen Shinohara (Oldhim) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Bob Yang (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.