Chane at Battle Hardened: Akihabara 2026

Chane

21 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Feng

2nd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.5

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ken Kuwahara ()

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 孝晃長濱 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs shoji shoji (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Yuji Tanaka (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Andy Pham (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs David Yau (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

David Yau

3rd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.2

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 大介小関 (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 和佳倉田 (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.16
R8	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kazuki Itabashi

3rd • 6-2-0

25%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mason Galvan (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kuan Li (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 祐也副島 (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs narihiko serikyaku (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Terukazu Goshima (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.56
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.99
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.67
R8	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Andy Pham

5th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yuto Mori (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chou Wen Hung (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.78
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

和佳倉田

12th • 4-2-0

17%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Taiki Bamba (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs David Yau (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kuan Li (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.97
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Mason Galvan

14th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs ゆうひ石丸 (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Xingyu ZHOU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Jaszczur

17th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Vu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 孝晃長濱 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kenta Miki (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs David Yau (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mason Galvan (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kenta Miki

18th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kuan Li (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Chou Wen Hung

27th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Lexi) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs EITARO SHIBATA (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Andy Pham (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yuji Tanaka (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

ゆうひ石丸

30th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Colin Li (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs narihiko serikyaku (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mason Galvan (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs 梶田和満 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 拓弥橋本 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

雅貴大場

31st • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kuan Li (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 梶田和満 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 理央鎌田 (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Ilya Polkovnichenko

32nd • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Terukazu Goshima (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Mason Galvan (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Colin Li (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 雅貴大場 (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Taiki Bamba (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 梶田和満 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

EITARO SHIBATA

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Teddy Tai (Azalea) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Chou Wen Hung (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Aoi Koganei (Oldhim) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs 祐也副島 (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.32
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Victor Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Colin Li

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Lexi) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

FUNG CC

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 祐也副島 (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Vu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Yuto Mori (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Hiroyuki Tansei

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Masaru Yoshizawa (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andy Pham (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.47
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.58
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

大介小関

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Justin Frear (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs David Yau (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Yuto Mori

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Andy Pham (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs FUNG CC (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Takumi Watanabe

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kenta Miki (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Motoki Soezima (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Xiu Meng Yip

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 祐也副島 (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 36:64

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs shoji shoji (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Frear

dropped • 0-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 大介小関 (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (1/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.