Valda Brightaxe at Battle Hardened: Akihabara 2026

Valda Brightaxe

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kaori Ohara

9th • 4-1-1

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 梶田和満 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Xingyu ZHOU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Colin Li (Chane) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mason Galvan (Chane) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Terukazu Goshima (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Draw	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.35
R5	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.44
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Nicholas Wong

26th • 3-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andy Pham (Chane) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kuan Li (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Taiki Bamba (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 雅貴大場 (Chane) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Chou Wen Hung (Chane) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Draw	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.44
R6	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.53

祐也副島

21st • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs FUNG CC (Chane) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Chane) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Chane) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs narihiko serikyaku (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs EITARO SHIBATA (Chane) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.44
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.