Battle Hardened: Akihabara 2026 - Valda Brightaxe (SAGE)

Valda Brightaxe

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kaori Ohara

9th • 4-1-1

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 梶田和満 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Xingyu ZHOU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Colin Li (Chane) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mason Galvan (Chane) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Terukazu Goshima (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Nicholas Wong

26th • 3-2-1

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Azalea) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Andy Pham (Chane) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kuan Li (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Taiki Bamba (Oldhim) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 雅貴大場 (Chane) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Chou Wen Hung (Chane) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	40%	Draw	✗	0.38	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

祐也副島

21st • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs FUNG CC (Chane) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Xiu Meng Yip (Chane) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Chane) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs narihiko serikyaku (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs EITARO SHIBATA (Chane) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.