Battle Hardened: Akihabara 2026 - Oldhim (SAGE)

Oldhim

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Shoki Imacho

1st • 9-0-0

100%

Meta

+4.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

4.6

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kento Inagaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs David Yau (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Andy Pham (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Kazuki Itabashi (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.40
R5	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.81
R9	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

haruka sonoda

5th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Masaru Yoshizawa (Briar) - Expected: 81:19

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs narihiko serikyaku (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Terukazu Goshima (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Andy Pham (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs David Yau (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Oldhim) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aoi Koganei

20th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs shoji shoji (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Terukazu Goshima (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs ‪yalon schori‬‏ (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs EITARO SHIBATA (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Yuji Tanaka (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

0:100

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 2:98

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	0%	Loss	✗	0.02	-

Kuan Li

22nd • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 雅貴大場 (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kenta Miki (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs ‪yalon schori‬‏ (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs 和佳倉田 (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Taiki Bamba

28th • 2-2-2

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 和佳倉田 (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs 拓弥橋本 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 51:49

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 梶田和満 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs Nicholas Wong (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Chane) - Expected: 53:47

80:20

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Azalea) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Chane	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.76
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.