Aurora at Battle Hardened: Akihabara 2026
Aurora
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
29th • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 SAGE
Round 1: Loss vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R2
R2 SAGE
Round 2: Loss vs 雅貴 大場 (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 SAGE
Round 3: Loss vs Taiki Bamba (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R4 SAGE
Round 4: Win vs 拓弥 橋本 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 45:55
R5
R5 SAGE
Round 5: Win vs ゆうひ 石丸 (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R6
R6 SAGE
Round 6: Loss vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda Brightaxe | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Chane | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Oldhim | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Flattering Showman | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Chane | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Chane | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.