Battle Hardened: Akihabara 2026 - Bravo, Flattering Showman (SAGE)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kento Inagaki

5th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yuta Maruo (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Masaru Yoshizawa (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kenta Miki (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs narihiko serikyaku (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs David Yau (Chane) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.46
R5	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Yuki Matsumoto

10th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Vu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 理央鎌田 (Briar) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 和佳倉田 (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Chane) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R4	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R5	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.61
R6	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

小林孝

13th • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs takamitsu maruyama ()

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 和佳倉田 (Chane) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Teddy Tai (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 祐也副島 (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R4	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.75

narihiko serikyaku

19th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Brodie Spurlock ()

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs ゆうひ石丸 (Chane) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 祐也副島 (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Chane) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

拓弥橋本

33rd • 1-4-1

83%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Taiki Bamba (Oldhim) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 梶田和満 (Aurora) - Expected: 55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs None ()

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Chane) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Draw	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	Silver Age	Aurora	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Chane	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.