Battle Hardened: Akihabara 2026 - Ira, Crimson Haze (SAGE)

Ira, Crimson Haze

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Terukazu Goshima

5th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ilya Polkovnichenko (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aoi Koganei (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kazuki Itabashi (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.94
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Yuji Tanaka

11th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yuta Maruo (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Masaki Hamada (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Chou Wen Hung (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Aoi Koganei (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Victor Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.85
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.21
R6	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

‪yalon schori‬‏

24th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Xingyu ZHOU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aoi Koganei (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Masaki Hamada (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kuan Li (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Xingyu ZHOU

dropped • 2-1-1

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs ‪yalon schori‬‏ (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Masaki Hamada (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Draw vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mason Galvan (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-
R4	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jonathan Vu

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs FUNG CC (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Shuto Ushiro

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Xiu Meng Yip (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Jamieson (Lexi) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	Silver Age		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

shoma yamamura

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 理央鎌田 (Briar) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

孝晃長濱

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Chane) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Kunihiko Date

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 孝晃長濱 (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs ‪yalon schori‬‏ (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.