Lexi at Battle Hardened: Akihabara 2026

Lexi

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Alex Jamieson

23rd • 3-3-0

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.6

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs David Yau (Chane) - Expected: 27:73

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Shuto Ushiro (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 大介小関 (Chane) - Expected: 27:73

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Vu (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs ‪yalon schori‬‏ (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R3	Silver Age	Chane	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.96
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.20
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Masaki Hamada

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Motoki Soezima (Scurv, Stowaway) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Xingyu ZHOU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yuji Tanaka (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs ‪yalon schori‬‏ (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Scurv, Stowaway	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Kevin Lindenmayer

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Chou Wen Hung (Chane) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Colin Li (Chane) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Masaru Yoshizawa (Briar) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.