Briar at Battle Hardened: Akihabara 2026

Briar

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kyoshiro Takegahara

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Shoki Imacho (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yuto Mori (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Masayuki Hori (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 大介小関 (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Terukazu Goshima (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.97
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

理央鎌田

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chen Wei Li (Kayo) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 雅貴大場 (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R3	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.91
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Masaru Yoshizawa

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs haruka sonoda (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Hiroyuki Tansei (Chane) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Lindenmayer (Lexi) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.78
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Yuta Maruo

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kento Inagaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yuji Tanaka (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.