Kassai of the Golden Sand at Battle Hardened: Seoul

Kassai of the Golden Sand

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

shoma yamamura

18th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lee Dong-Hee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs HAN DONG HUI (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs In GwangYeol (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hangjune "Shu" Cho (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs ko yunsik (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kyoungsoo Kim (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.27
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

ko yunsik

32nd • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyujung Lee (Betsy, Skin in the Game) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sulbin Park (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs 진영 우 (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs kouji hamada (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs shoma yamamura (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Changbin Baek (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Betsy, Skin in the Game	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.41
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.50

song kyunghwan

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs seongkyu lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sinho Seol (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.