Battle Hardened: Seoul - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sinho Seol

19th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Keeseob Choi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs song kyunghwan (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs harbae KIM (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Deitrich Mohan (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs seongkyu lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yugo Endo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.79
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Hojin Choi

26th • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Park seongil (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Suk ju Lee (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs HyoungJun You (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs wooram Oh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs penguin sim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ken Kuwahara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.01
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Simon Miller

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ran Sasaki (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nathan Youngblut (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.