Arakni, Huntsman at Calling: Shizuoka 2025

Arakni, Huntsman

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Iada Caio

dropped • 3-3-1

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yasutaka Okamoto (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs masaru okuda (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yuki Yokoyama (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs 広朗大澤 (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs KeDuo Yang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Shota Deguchi

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs ユウキテラダ (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kunihiko Date (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kazushi Nimiya (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Peng Joon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.06
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Fu Kah Deng

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rachata Leryoschaipong (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryota Kitanaka (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Keisuke Iwamura (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.