Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at Battle Hardened: Copenhagen

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Henry Wiesner

59th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Carr (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Lorente (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sebastian Niedzielec (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23

80:20

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mariusz Korlacki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.32
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.36

Vladimir Del Valle

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 86:14, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kristaps Štils (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jan Eid (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Fabrizio Cenacchi ()

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	85%	Loss	✓	0.86	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.46
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Julia Brown

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Christensen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mads Bergenstoff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.18
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Balint Herendi

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jaran Ødegaard Sørensen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sami Belkhorfi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.20

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.