Battle Hardened: Copenhagen 2025 - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Henry Wiesner

59th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Carr (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stanislau Chykileuski (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tom Lorente (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sebastian Niedzielec (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mariusz Korlacki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.21
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.45
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Vladimir Del Valle

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Finlay Freir (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kristaps Štils (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jan Eid (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Fabrizio Cenacchi ()

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.37
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R5	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Julia Brown

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs John Christensen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mads Bergenstoff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.15
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Balint Herendi

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jaran Ødegaard Sørensen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sami Belkhorfi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.