Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Copenhagen 2025
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 7-1-0
38%
Meta
+3.0
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Vladimir Del Valle (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mariusz Korlacki (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
Round 3: Win vs Kasper Honkanen (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Petrone (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lucas Vaz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Linus Albat (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Finn Baird (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.