Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Copenhagen 2025
Arakni, Marionette
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-1-0
70%
Meta
+3.9
Perf
4.9
Surp
5.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Albert Schütt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Fabrizio Cenacchi ()
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sebastian Niedzielec (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lewis Day (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Lorenzo Petrone (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Finn Baird (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Teo Rutisson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Finn Baird (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
70% (7/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
5.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | 50% | Loss | |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
5th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Noah Hicks (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Max Schmidt (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Albert Schütt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs George Rodger (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Linus Albat (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
47th • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.5
Surp
0.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marcel Andrzejczak (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Bino Nolting (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tobias Neller (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Enes Findik (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
63rd • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Enes Findik (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Juha-Antti Kurttila (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tigran Grigorian (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Paul Beese (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mantas Banevicius (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
66th • 2-5-0
86%
Meta
-2.0
Perf
3.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Reyes (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jaran Ødegaard Sørensen (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jan Eid (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dmitri Sidorenko (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Marcus Karlsson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Hugo Platret (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Westmore (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Johnny Vretlind (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs George Jones (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Otso Somerla (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Shahmir Samee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joel Rencen (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Klas Bergholtz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.