Battle Hardened: Singapore 2025 - Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light (LL)

Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michaele Teppa

12th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Suh Jaeyong (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Anton Cid Mejias (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Zimmer (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Pauli Viimaranta (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.19
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

FUKUHARA RYOU

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Peng Joon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Majin Bae (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Benzarti (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 18:82

20:80

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Nguyễn (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Takumi Watanabe (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R5	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Takumi Watanabe

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Lee Kimball (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Lane Thomason (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Melvin Chew (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs FUKUHARA RYOU (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R5	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lee Kimball

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Takumi Watanabe (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Muhamad Azim Fitri Abdul Muis (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

SEAN STELL

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 18:82

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Gondowijoyo (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.