Battle Hardened: Singapore 2025 - Aurora, Shooting Star (LL)

Aurora, Shooting Star

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chris Javier Mapalo

30th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Zak Miller (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

20:80

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash I/O) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Dash I/O) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Gale (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Peng Joon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	20%	Win	✗	0.79	0.32
R2	LL	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	LL	Dash I/O	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.00
R4	LL	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andy Kim

34th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.2

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Dash I/O) - Expected: 20:80

20:80

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 21:79

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Blake Godenzi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Lu Wei Soh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

20:80

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs EITARO SHIBATA (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	20%	Win	✗	0.79	1.94
R7	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Suh Jaeyong

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Catton (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 45:55

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Derek Yang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Dexter Phan (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Muhamad Azim Fitri Abdul Muis

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs EITARO SHIBATA (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 21:79

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Kostoglou (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Boyhan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	LL	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.