Fai, Rising Rebellion
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.7
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Oskar "Jowe" Halamus (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 79:21
Round 3: Win vs Miłosz Wierzchoń (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 27:73
Round 5: Win vs Liviu-Andrei Tudorache (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kalle Kivilahti (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Maciej Janik (Unknown)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Oguz Delice (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Felix Gössel (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Geoffroy Massard (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Leoluca Colletti (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jakub Grefling (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 27:73
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Linus Rodhammar (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 60% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
29%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hamish Chisholm Brown (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Reichhart (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
Round 3: Win vs Nino Chimenti (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Marc Lanigra (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Wallner (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jurica Fejer (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 79:21
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tudor Serban (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stef Ganchev (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lukáš Barborik (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Szabolcs Egri (Unknown)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62
Round 5: Loss vs Christof Scheidenberger (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Rokas Jaskevičius (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 31:69
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tomasz Stanicki (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 27:73
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mateusz Mazur (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thore Ladicke (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 39:61
Round 4: Win vs gabriel głowicki (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Grzegorz Pijas (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 54:46
Round 6: Loss vs Leon Schüßler (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62
Round 2: Win vs Gábor Varga (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Troth (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Win vs Andrei Joghiu (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 5: Loss vs Lukáš Barborik (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
0%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Michał Kopeć (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 23:77
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Vitalij Zeiser (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jachym Flidr (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
25%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Valeria Nitoglia (Unknown)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robertas Vertinskis (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paweł Sosnowski (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.