National Championship 2025 - Ireland - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dylan Thompson

1st • 6-0-0

100%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

4.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stephen McKeever (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dave Kerr (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jack Canty (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Connor McGrath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Ryan Porter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.20
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.01
R9	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.24

Stephen McKeever

5th • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tadhg Treacy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Adam West (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.50
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

David Russell

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Conor Rourke (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.99
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Justin Walsh

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carl Boyle (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Conor Rourke (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.