National Championship 2025 - Ireland - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Connor McGrath

3rd • 4-1-0

40%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brendan McManus (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Canty (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Shane Murray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs seoirse byrne (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.91
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.66	2.17
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Jakub Nowicki

5th • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Connor McLaughlin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cameron Hindes (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Russell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.97
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Brendan McManus

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Petrone (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Conaty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.