Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jack Canty

5th • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Petrone (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Eugenio Assenzi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.45
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.61
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Ian Holland

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niall McCoy (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam West (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.94
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Jelo Salomon

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Conor Rourke (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Smyth (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carl Boyle (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.46

Charlotte Little

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Shane Murray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Connor McLaughlin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Draw	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.