FaB-Results

Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Ireland

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Conor Rourke
dropped • 2-1-0
67%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
!
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jelo Salomon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Russell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Justin Walsh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
Indigo Bosworth
dropped • 2-1-0
67%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
1.4
Surp
1.3
Diff
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Niall McCoy (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29
Prism, Awakener of Sol
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Shane Murray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Connor McLaughlin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Legend

Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
Minor Surprise (10-19%)
!!
Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.