National Championship 2025 - Ireland - Arakni, Marionette (CC) - FaB-Results

Arakni, Marionette

Arakni, Marionette

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jelo Salomon (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Russell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Walsh (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

Indigo Bosworth

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Niall McCoy (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

Prism, Awakener of Sol

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shane Murray (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Connor McLaughlin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.91

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.