National Championship 2025 - Ireland - Cindra, Dracai of Retribution (CC)

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Adam West

3rd • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Manning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs seoirse byrne (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Holland (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Stephen McKeever (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.24
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.36
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.91
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Dave Kerr

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eugenio Assenzi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Conaty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.54
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Connor McLaughlin

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charlotte Little (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Indigo Bosworth (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Lorenzo Petrone

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Canty (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brendan McManus (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jamie McCabe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.