Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2025

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Adam West

3rd • 3-2-0

20%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Manning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs seoirse byrne (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ian Holland (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Stephen McKeever (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan Porter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.24
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.29
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.03
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Dave Kerr

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eugenio Assenzi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Conaty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Connor McLaughlin

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Charlotte Little (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Indigo Bosworth (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.33
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Lorenzo Petrone

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Canty (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brendan McManus (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jamie McCabe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.