Kano, Dracai of Aether at National Championship 2025

Kano, Dracai of Aether

Kano, Dracai of Aether

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Stephen Manning

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam West (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Jarl Vetreiði

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Jarl Vetreiði

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Walsh (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.61
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stephen McKeever (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

Dash I/O

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Niall McCoy (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.