Kano, Dracai of Aether at National Championship 2025

Kano, Dracai of Aether

Kano, Dracai of Aether

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Stephen Manning

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Adam West (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pádraig Ní Rúis (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

Jarl Vetreiði

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jack Walsh (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.53
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stephen McKeever (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

Dash I/O

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan McTernan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Niall McCoy (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.