National Championship 2025 - Ireland - Jarl Vetreiði (CC) - FaB-Results

Jarl Vetreiði

Jarl Vetreiði

2 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Conaty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Dash I/O

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jamie McCabe (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28

Kano, Dracai of Aether

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.31
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Pádraig Ní Rúis

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Russell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Kano, Dracai of Aether

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stephen Manning (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Charlotte Little (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Draw	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.