Battle Hardened: London - Iyslander, Stormbind (LL)

Iyslander, Stormbind

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Samuel Braben

22nd • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Menion Croll (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

80:20

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Seb Ball (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Majin Bae (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 60:40

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs sean Burke (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Gary White (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Karl Naylor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Adam Haill (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.09
R3	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Sebastian Spicher

42nd • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

30:70

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Theo Maggs (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Martin Okruhlica (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

60:40

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Catton (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Collins (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Tom Fownes (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 60:40

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Diana Green (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.25
R2	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	LL	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jared Warden

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Walter Heidelberger (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Franco (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

30:70

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Hill (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 29:71

80:20

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Valentin Varga (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Karl Naylor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.25
R5	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Will Rea

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Rob Catton (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Kuhrt (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Erwin Van Herrewegen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	LL	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.