Aurora, Shooting Star at Battle Hardened: London
Aurora, Shooting Star
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
62nd • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Mikael GARCIA (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 20:80
40:60
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Liam Canning (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Braben (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Alex Knott (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 7: Win vs Erwin Van Herrewegen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.