Aurora, Shooting Star
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-1-0
90%
Meta
+3.8
Perf
4.8
Surp
4.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Chen Ming (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Teoh Juwern (Unknown)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs YuDi Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs OWN HSIANG YU (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs tim Lin ()
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Carlo Ople (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
90% (9/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R7 | 50% | Loss | |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
2nd • 8-2-0
90%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
4.9
Surp
3.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs jiazhou 吳 (Unknown)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tai-Yuan Chen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Oh Oh (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs tim Lin ()
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
Round 7: Win vs 陸 宗彥 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs GAO ZHI-PENG (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
90% (9/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
4.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | 50% | Loss | |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
3rd • 7-2-0
100%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Redc Chen (Unknown)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kieran Moon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs CYK Lionel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs tim Lin ()
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs YuDi Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs YuDi Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs GAO ZHI-PENG (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (9/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R6 | 50% | Loss | |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
3rd • 6-3-0
78%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
4.6
Surp
3.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alexander Jan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mikko Pena (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs GAO ZHI-PENG (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
Round 5: Win vs 陸 宗彥 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Round 6: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Xincheng Hou (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
R8
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs tim Lin ()
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
78% (7/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R8 | 50% | Win | |
| R9 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
5th • 5-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.9
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alexander Jan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mikko Pena (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Nisthal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Stop-Ting Hsu (Unknown)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
Round 7: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs GAO ZHI-PENG (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
20th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs kou rui yang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luo Sheng-Xun (Unknown)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs 莊 子毅 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs ZongRu Wu (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
Round 6: Win vs Joey Jiik (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Liang Hsi Ho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
30th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs LIN TING-WEI (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs tim Lin ()
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kieran Moon (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs 陸 宗彥 (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs 莊 子毅 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
Round 6: Loss vs Po-Chuan Lin (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Teoh Juwern (Unknown)
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R2 | 50% | Loss | |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
37th • 3-3-1
86%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
3.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs HanYang Chang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hao-Han Chuang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Round 3: Loss vs YuDi Chen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yu fan Liao (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs Yu Zhang (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 77:23
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs 左 承勳 (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs CYK Lionel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 75% | Draw |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
58th • 1-6-0
71%
Meta
-2.6
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs HanYang Chang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Cheng-Chong Tang (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Yu Wang (Unknown)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Luo Sheng-Xun (Unknown)
Round 6: Win vs Lin Raccoon (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mo mo (Unknown)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 75% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.1
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs HO CHI-YUN (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 82:18
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Round 4: Loss vs Sun Yu Lin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.