Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Taipei

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

陸宗彥

19th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs CHUN-CHIEH CHENG (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jan Ray Teh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hung Aaa_Man (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ma Kang shuo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lee Ming-Han (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Teoh Juwern (Unknown)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Pei-Tung Liao (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.41
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Chen Ming

32nd • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs GAO ZHI-PENG (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xincheng Hou (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexander Jan (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sun Yu Lin (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs HanYang Chang (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Chen Yi-Lin (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.39
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Manson Hsiau

39th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yaoting Wang (Unknown)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jing Hao Fang (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lin Yu-Hsi (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Teoh Juwern (Unknown)

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Hung Aaa_Man (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.52
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Chen Yi-Lin

41st • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs MIN FENG CHIU (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs CHIU CHUNG-YI (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stop-Ting Hsu (Unknown)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs ZongRu Wu (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs 陳子豫 (Unknown)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Chen Ming (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.17
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.66
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.