Fai, Rising Rebellion at Battle Hardened: Taipei
Fai, Rising Rebellion
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
51st • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.3
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joel Guzman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75
Round 2: Win vs Cian Yi Lin (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Husan Bang Chang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Redc Chen (Unknown)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mo mo (Unknown)
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Chen Ming (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 27:73
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jan Ray Teh (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.